Superligabets: Week 3 Superliga previews

26 July 2016 | 7:51 pm

Superligabets: Week 3 Superliga previews


Superligabets: Week 3 Superliga previews


Week 3 Superliga previews

Not the round
with most value picks. Champions League/Europa League are disturbing factors,
which means that line-ups will have a big influence here.
The only two
teams without points meet here. Viborg improved a lot from round one to round
two. You could argue that they deserved an equaliser against AGF, but at the
end, they did not have the luck. Viborg have a fine team. It is quite solid,
but they made a number of changes in the midfield and they surely need some
time to make it really work. Offensively, they have struggled a lot without
offensive ace Serge Deble. However, latest information suggests that Deble is
back in full training and could make his season debut here. Deble is massively
important for Viborg as he draws a lot of attention from opposing defences. It
is no coincidence that Viborg are 2-1-7 in the past two seasons, when he is not
playing. Esbjerg have been the worst team in the Superliga so far. I am quite
satisfied with my season bet on Esbjerg to take direct relegation. They have
been torn apart by Brøndby and FC Copenhagen losing each match 0-4. They have
only managed to get two shots on target while conceding 23 (that’s a terrible
SoTR). However, it is worth noticing that Esbjerg have had two of the worst
opponents in the league, while being in a state of chaos while appointing a new
head coach and experiencing a change of CEO. Esbjerg should improve with time
as head coach Todd gets to introduce his ideas fully. Overall, they are a team
with a quite vulnerable back line and a midfield without creativity. Only light
in the dark is attacker Kevin Mensah who has the individual qualities to make
something happen out of the blue.
Esbjerg have
the largest wage budget, but Viborg seem like a more united team with a clearer
strategy. If Deble is back to full power, I would significantly increase
Viborg’s chances of success, despite my scepticism towards the midfield
constellation at the moment. However, if Deble is not on the team sheet, I
would certainly not back Viborg at the current prices as Esbjerg could rise
from ashes at some point. So I would suggest awaiting the line-ups with 1X2
bets. Instead, my idea pick is an over match as I have a feeling that both
teams could go for a win here, and Esbjerg would surprise me if they pull off a
clean sheet.
Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.14 at Unibet
FC Copenhagen-FC Nordsjælland
recommended betting on FC Copenhagen to take the title in my preseason preview,
and I think it is a solid bet based on the two initial games. FC Copenhagen
have a beaten opponents without problems and hold a goalscore of 7-0. They have
an impressive squad depth and a player with quality covers almost every
position. The only thing I don’t like about FC Copenhagen these days is that
they have to focus on multiple tournaments as they are hunting a Champions
League position. They will play the first match against Romanian champions
Astra Wednesday with the return leg next Tuesday, so FC Copenhagen might rest a
few of the key players on Saturday, although it is early season so players are
less fatigued. But Champions League is undoubtedly first priority at the
moment. FC Nordsjælland started the season with 4-0 win at Viborg, but followed
up by losing 0-4 at home to FC Midtjylland. What a start! While they looked
strong in Viborg, they looked even weaker in the match against FC Midtjylland.
I have rarely seen a team being so dominated: FC Midtjylland had 22 shots from
the penalty box, while FC Nordsjælland had 3! But FC Nordsjælland have the
youngest team in the league, so natural with some bumps on the road. I think
they have some potential offensively, but they are certainly fragile against
quality opponents.
I would be
surprised if this does not end in a home win. The quality difference suggests
so, but it is a risk that FC Copenhagen are more focused on the Champions
League matches. Therefore no recommendation here – the price is just too low.
In fact, it might well increase if FC Copenhagen should rest several starters,
so the best thing is probably to wait until line-ups arrive Saturday.
Idea: 1 – 1.34 at Pinnacle
I actually
think SønderjyskE did a good job against Horsens last weekend (1-1). They were
able to dominate most of the match despite playing 120 minutes Europa League
with almost the same players just three days before. However, SønderjyskE will
play another Europa League match on Thursday in Poland and with the limited
squad depth, I am not sure SønderjyskE will be able to continue fielding the
A-team in both tournaments. Thursday night could suggest how SønderjyskE rates
the tournaments, but I expect the team in Sunday to be a combination of
rotation and tired regular players. Despite of this, you should never
underestimate the fighting spirit of SønderjyskE as it was crucial last season
in picking up a second place after many even matches. Lyngby showed that they
have Superliga quality against OB (2-2) last weekend. They were down 0-2, but
fought back and even missed a penalty at the end. Overall, the match was pretty
equal, which was unexpected to most (me included), both Lyngby have players
with individual skills combined with a good mentality which should give them
points throughout the season.
Number 2
last season against a promoted side should look like a clear home win. I don’t
think it is the case. SønderjyskE had a massive season last season, they fought
well, but they were also incredibly efficient in front of goal. If I am cruel,
I would say that they were very lucky to pick up the 2nd place last season. And
I see them really having problems with a tight schedule and a slim squad. They
are not experienced in playing two tournaments. They face Lyngby, who have made
solid summer signings and have offensive weapons to hurt SønderjyskE.
Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.06 at Pinnacle
This is a
local rivalry, but there seems to be a large difference between the teams on
the pitch. FC Midtjylland are the main challenger for FC Copenhagen at the top.
They proved that by demolishing FC Nordsjælland 4-0 after dominating the match
massively. It was hugely impressive, and FC Midtjyland should face a great
season if they can play so well. I think they have an exciting squad with a
decent depth. However, I am slightly worried if they sell winger Sisto which
rumours suggests as he seems to be close to his best now – and they would need
him to be a serious challenger to FC Copenhagen. For this match, they could
rotate a bit due to Europa League on Thursday, but the reserves should still be
stronger than the Silkeborg starters. Silkeborg are a promoted side, which have
not done a lot on the transfer market. The match against Brøndby (lost 0-2)
showed that Silkeborg are far from the best, and they will undoubtedly face a
season in the lower ranks. They focus on solid defending with the hope that a
player like Robert Skov will make something happen offensively.
quality difference here. It is reminiscent of the FC Copenhagen-FC Nordsjælland
game in this round. FC Midtjylland should win, but in case they rotate (or sell
Sisto), they could find it a bit more difficult. I am tempted to pick Silkeborg
not to score here. They lack offensive quality and FC Midtjylland have looked
strong defensively only conceding three shots on target in the first two league
Idea: Silkeborg under 0.5 goals – 2.07 at SBOBet
Brøndby have
had a great start to the season. They have a goal score of 6-0 after winning
two matches pretty effortlessly. The new high-pressing style seem to work well
for Brøndby. However, it is also very demanding and stats suggest that Brøndby
are running more than the rest of the league. With Brøndby also playing Europa
League, they could face some issues. Also since they don’t have the biggest
squad depth despite making some new recent signings. Brøndby will play Hertha
Berlin on Thursday, which will be a very difficult match. If Brøndby get a good
first leg result, they could decide to rest some players for the return match,
which would hurt their chances here. Horsens are a promoted side that mainly
lives on physique and attitude. They have so far clinched two 1-1 draws, which
should be quite satisfying, and unsurprisingly both goals scored have been
scored from set pieces (by the strong centre back Sanneh). I am unsure of
Horsens offensive quality, particularly due their inability to make offensive new
signing and expected profile Aabech perform well. They need him at the best to
really make opponents worry.
should be strong enough to win here, but with Europa League, a tough playing
style and not the most impressive squad depth, I simply cannot back them at the
price. It is a match, where a valuable bet might pop up with the starting
line-ups. If we look at the over/under market, I think under is interesting.
Brøndby might be a bit tired and play more cautiously, while Horsens are
defensive by nature and not looking particularly dangerous.
Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.98 at Pinnacle
AGF have had
a fantastic start to the season with two wins. I think they have played fine,
but surely not outstanding. It is like last season with the only difference
that AGF seem to be more efficient, especially defensively where they suffered
from a mediocre saving rate, but so far new keeper Jovanovic seems like an
improvement. AGF have also just made a signing of Viking Stavanger central
defender Soares and they will hope that he can improve the central defence even
further. AGF face some injury issues, as key striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen
and central defender Alexander Juel Andersen are likely to miss this match.
While Rasmussen was expected to be irreplaceable, his replacement Junker has
actually done fairly well when handed the chance in the last few matches.
Randers lost 0-1 to AaB last weekend. To be fair, they probably should have
earned at least a point there, but they failed to score despite 10 attempts
from the penalty box! I think Randers have a fairly solid team, but key striker
Ishak needs to find form, while they need to find a better solution than Agesen
as centre back.
I see AGF
and Randers as two very even teams at the moment. When counting in the home
advantage, I actually see AGF to win here as being slim value. I think betting
on goals is an even better bet. Both teams should chase the win, while not
having the most impressive defences. Head-to-head records also suggest over being
a good pick with two of the three matches last season ending with over 2.5
Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 2.25 at SBOBet
Idea: 1 (AH +0) – 1.91 at Pinnacle
AaB took an
important win away at Randers (1-0) last weekend. They were good in first half,
and perhaps a bit lucky to maintain the lead in the second half. I think, the
first matches suggest that AaB are far from the level of last season, which is
only natural after losing three of the most important players. AaB still look
like a team that is searching for the right formation after the summer break
and until that happen, they could be a bit instable. However, I really do like
their choice in attack, where Bassogog is an eternal threat with his speed. OB
have picked up one of the AaB key players in central defender Kenneth Emil
Petersen, but he is banned here. OB did not look all too good defensively in
the last match against Lyngby (2-2), which is disappointing but not unexpected
as OB are fielding a totally new defence after an abysmal defensive season last
season. The absence of Petersen is not good though as he has already been
elected captain and OB do not have the most impressive depth on that position.
In the midfield they are also hit by injury as defensive midfielder Izunna is
out with injury, but he is not as important for OB. I think OB still have a few
things to work with in defence and midfield, but the attack is high quality
with Jacobsen and Festersen both being players capable of earning the league
top goalscorer title.
Given the
absences of Petersen and Izunna, I think AaB look somewhat stronger here.
Adding that AaB have a strong home field, they should be clear favourites.
Unfortunately, the market has already adjusted and I don’t think it is possible
to find more value on the home side. In fact, I actually think some bookies
have overadjusted, and I think OB could be worth a small stake.

value and profit since 2006

Idea: 2 – 3.79 at Pinnacle


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